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The Outlook for Migration to the UK

Migration Watch UK

This paper looks ahead for the next twenty years in the event that the UK votes to remain within the EU. It assesses that net migration would be likely to remain very high or indeed rise further still, with serious consequences for our population and quality of life.

The paper focuses on EU migration and sets out two scenarios for a lower and higher estimate which are summarised in Annex A and B. Under the low migration scenario, EU net migration would not fall below 155,000 by 2035 and it would add 3.4 million EU migrants to the UK population by that date. Under the high migration scenario, EU net migration would be 220,000 a year by 2035, adding an additional 4.3 million EU migrants to the population of the UK. Net migration from the EU is currently recorded at 184,000. However, the unexplained discrepancy between the growth in the population of EU migrants and registrations for National Insurance Numbers suggests that the true EU net migration figure is closer to 220,000. 

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